Detecting the weather

Thomas Else Thomas Else likes to play detective and has been an expert witness in trials in New Jersey and neighboring states. But Else is not a police officer or even a private investigator, he is a meteorologist.

A 1993 graduate of South River High School, Else was captivated by the weather from an early age.

“My parents knew something was wrong [because] ever since elementary school, I was fascinated with storms,” Else said. Whenever there was a storm, he would be “glued to the radio or TV,” or he would be outside.

Following his passion, Else majored in earth science and meteorology and minored in math at Kean University. In addition to his degree, Else is a certified consulting meteorologist of the American Meteorological Society.

The summer of his senior year in college, he started an internship at WeatherWorks, a private forecasting firm in Hackettstown founded in 1986 by, as fate would have it, New Brunswick resident Frank Lombardo.

“I grew up listening to Frank Lombardo,” said Else, who now lives in Hackettstown to be closer to his job.

He was hired full time upon his graduation in 1997 and has been with the company ever since.

“Every day you are playing detective. You have to figure out Mother Nature’s next move,” said Else, explaining why he loves his work. “The exciting thing is to predict every aspect [of the weather] … one variable changes the entire forecast.”

Since Else’s boyhood days, weather forecasting has changed. Back then, weather data was compiled from airports, including major ones like Newark, but also from smaller ones in towns like Atlantic City, Trenton, Teterboro, Belmar, Sussex and Andover.

Today, increased technology gives meteorologists more computer power and access to more data and observations. Weather data now is taken not only from airports but also from space satellites, sensors on airplanes, and private weather observers. Data is fed into different computer models, each designed to predict certain aspects of weather such as temperature or humidity.

As chief meteorologist and lead forecaster, Else does what most think of as a typical weatherman: he records weather forecasts that are aired on radio stations, such as Greater Media’s WCTC AM, and Magic 98.3 FM. But that is only one aspect of his job. Weather- Works also gives forecasts to county road departments, municipalities and professional sports teams. Clients include the Connecticut Department of Transportation and NewYork City’s sanitation department.

WeatherWorks alerts clients to storms and, using the technology available today, can be fairly precise in its forecast. For example, Else can warn officials in a municipality about an impending storm, then will alert them an hour or two before the snow begins so they can get their crews mobilized, Else said.

Another aspect of his job is forensic meteorology. Else and Lombardo consult for law firms and insurance companies and “reconstruct weather and go to court as witnesses,” Else said.

Else can help determine whether a claim has merit. If an individual wants compensation for a slip and fall on a patch of ice, for example, Else can use forensic meteorology to determine if conditions were right at that time for ice to form. Other typical cases include flooding, wind damage and lightning strikes. “Was there a cloud-to-ground lightning strike here? If so, at what time?” said Else.

Forecasts over a two- or threeweek period are not as accurate, however. They are vague predictions, such as above-average precipitation or below-normal temperature.

“Long-range forecasting is the most inaccurate in all of meteorology. … We don’t have the technology [for accurate predictions],” Else said. “You can predict that there will be a lot of snow this winter, and you have a 50 percent chance of being right.”

Another unknown is global warming. Temperatures rose approximately 1 degree from 1860- 2000, Else said.

“The problem is, we don’t know how the atmosphere is going to respond,” he said.

“Mother Nature doesn’t allow runaway temperatures,” he explained. The earth tries to equalize itself, creating storms to bring warmer weather to the poles and colder weather to the equator, he said.

New Jersey has relatively few storms compared to other areas of the country; a ferocious storm in the South is less dangerous by the time it reaches New Jersey. Much of that is due to proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricanes needs warm ocean water to keep their momentum, and the ocean temperatures in New Jersey are generally not warm enough to sustain hurricanes. Additionally, the westerly winds of the jet stream push storms away from the coast, Else said.

Cooler ocean waters also keep tornadoes minimal. Another factor is the wind shear in New Jersey, which isn’t favorable to tornadoes. Additionally, mountains disrupt the air that forms in thunderstorms, preventing tornadoes from forming, Else said.

While it may seem that there have been more tornadoes in recent years, Else said there is no way to know.

“Back in the day [tornadoes] were missed. No one had a cell phone or camera,” Else said. Tornadoes may have formed in less populated areas so damage was minimal and not many people were affected.

But today, if there is a storm brewing in New Jersey, Else and the crew at WeatherWorks will know.